October 2025 Visa Bulletin: Outlook and Projections

October 2025 Visa Bulletin: Outlook and Projections

The U.S. Department of State has released the October 2025 Visa Bulletin, marking the start of Fiscal Year 2026. After the September year-end squeeze that left some categories at risk of becoming unavailable, October provides a reset with fresh visa numbers. This month brings cautious forward movement in several employment-based categories, the reopening of EB-4, and continued stability in EB-5 set-asides.

Family-Sponsored Categories (Final Action)

F1: All Chargeability/China/India: November 8, 2016; Mexico: November 22, 2005; Philippines: January 22, 2013. F2A: All Chargeability/China/India/Philippines: February 1, 2024; Mexico: February 1, 2023 (Mexico uses exempt numbers first). F2B: All Chargeability/China/India: November 22, 2016; Mexico: December 15, 2007; Philippines: October 1, 2012. F3: All Chargeability/China/India: September 8, 2011; Mexico: April 15, 2001; Philippines: September 22, 2004. F4: All Chargeability/China: January 8, 2008; India: November 1, 2006; Mexico: April 8, 2001; Philippines: March 22, 2006.

Dates for Filing (Family): F2A remains far ahead at September 22, 2025, for all countries. Most other family categories show modest filing-date progress. USCIS will confirm which chart is used for adjustment of status filings.

Employment-Based Categories (Final Action)

EB-1: All Chargeability/Mexico/Philippines: Current; China: December 22, 2022; India: February 15, 2022. EB-2: ROW/Mexico/Philippines: December 1, 2023; China: April 1, 2021; India: April 1, 2013. EB-3: ROW/Mexico/Philippines: April 1, 2023; China: March 1, 2021; India: August 22, 2013. EB-3 Other Workers: ROW/Mexico/Philippines: July 15, 2021; China: December 1, 2017; India: August 22, 2013. EB-4: July 1, 2020, for all countries. Certain Religious Workers (SR): Unavailable pending congressional reauthorization. EB-5 (Unreserved): ROW/Mexico/Philippines: Current; China: December 8, 2015; India: February 1, 2021. EB-5 (Set-Asides: Rural, High Unemployment, Infrastructure): Current worldwide.

Dates for Filing (Employment): EB-1 ROW remains Current; China: May 15, 2023; India: April 15, 2023. EB-2 ROW: July 15, 2024; China: December 1, 2021; India: December 1, 2013. EB-3 ROW: July 1, 2023; China: January 1, 2022; India: August 15, 2014. Other Workers: ROW: December 1, 2021; China: October 1, 2018; India: August 15, 2014.

Diversity Visa (DV-2026)

October marks the start of DV-2026. Rank cut-offs are: Africa: 17,500 (Algeria 14,500; Egypt 16,000). Asia: 10,000 (Nepal 6,000). Europe: 7,750. North America (Bahamas): 20. Oceania: 1,100. South America/Caribbean: 1,850.

November DV-2026 cut-offs remain unchanged from October. The annual DV limit is reduced to approximately 52,000 due to NACARA/NDAA offsets.

Key Changes from September 2025

  • EB-4 reopens to July 1, 2020, after being Unavailable in September.
  • EB-2 and EB-3 advance in multiple lanes: China and India both see forward movement; ROW EB-2 advances to December 1, 2023.
  • EB-5 India (Unreserved) advances to February 1, 2021. Set-Asides remain Current.
  • Family categories progress modestly, with F2A still the relative bright spot.

Outlook and Projections

EB-1: Remains Current for most countries; small, measured forward steps for India and China are possible. EB-2 / EB-3: ROW could see further modest advancement in FY-2026. India and China’s backlogs will persist with incremental movement. EB-3 Other Workers: Highly constrained due to statutory limits; limited progress expected. EB-4: Now reopened; future movement will depend on demand. SR remains Unavailable unless reauthorized by Congress. EB-5: Set-Asides stay Current; India Unreserved may continue to move slowly; China remains heavily backlogged. Family: Expect sideways to slow forward movement. F2A remains the most favorable for filing.

Filing Dates: What They Mean

USCIS will announce which chart (Final Action or Dates for Filing) governs adjustment of status this month. Filing Dates remain materially ahead of Final Action in EB-2, EB-3, and F2A, allowing applicants to begin AOS preparation even if approvals are limited in the near term.

Conclusion

October 2025 begins the new fiscal year with fresh visa allocations. EB-4 reopens, EB-2 and EB-3 categories advance, EB-1 ROW remains Current, and EB-5 Set-Asides provide attractive options for qualified investors. Family categories continue their slow but steady pace, while F2A maintains a wide filing lead. The Diversity Visa program resets, and applicants should plan early. Monitoring monthly updates and USCIS chart announcements will be essential as FY-2026 progresses.

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