The U.S. Visa Bulletins for 2024 have shown several significant trends, particularly in family-sponsored and employment-based categories. Based on the recently released October 2024 visa bulletin and trends over the past fiscal year, here’s a breakdown of what’s been happening and what to expect moving forward.

Family-Sponsored Categories

  1. Consistent Movement in F2A: The F2A category (spouses and children of permanent residents) remained steady, with priority dates generally around February 2019 to February 2021 for most countries. This trend suggests minimal forward movement will continue through 2024, especially for countries like India, China, Mexico, and the Philippines, which face significant demand.
  2. F1 and F3 Sluggish: The F1 (unmarried sons and daughters of U.S. citizens) and F3 (married sons and daughters) categories have been largely stagnant, with priority dates moving just a few months between 2015 and 2017. This slow trend is likely to persist.
  3. F4 Backlog: F4 (siblings of U.S. citizens) continues to show significant backlogs for countries like India and Mexico, with dates as far back as 2000 for Mexico and 2007 for India. Movement is expected to remain slow into 2024.

Employment-Based Categories

  1. Retrogression in EB-2 and EB-3 for India: Both EB-2 (advanced degree holders) and EB-3 (skilled workers) continue to experience severe backlogs. For example, EB-2 India has been stuck around 2012 across multiple months, reflecting an extremely high demand. Minimal forward movement is expected, and further retrogression is likely in 2024.
  2. EB-1 Remains Current: The EB-1 (priority workers) category remained current for most chargeability areas throughout 2023 and into early 2024, except for India and China, which faced retrogressions back to 2017-2022. This category is expected to remain stable for the general population, while backlogs may persist for high-demand countries.
  3. EB-5 Investor Visas: The EB-5 category has remained current for most chargeability areas in 2023, including reserved subcategories like rural and high-unemployment areas. This suggests that visa availability for investors will remain favorable in the near future.

Predictions for 2024

  • Family-Sponsored Categories: Expect minimal advancement for F1, F2B, F3, and F4 categories due to continued demand and backlog issues for oversubscribed countries like India and Mexico.
  • Employment-Based Categories: Further retrogression for India and China in EB-2 and EB-3 categories, while EB-1 will likely stay current for most countries except high-demand regions.
  • EB-5 and Employment Set-Asides: The EB-5 program, particularly for those investing in rural and high-unemployment areas, will remain an attractive option, with priority dates staying current.

Overall, 2024 has been marked by slow progress in family-sponsored visas and significant retrogression in employment-based categories, especially for high-demand countries like India and Mexico. Expect these trends to persist for the remainder of the year.

Conclusion

The 2024 U.S. Visa Bulletin highlights a year of slow movement in family-sponsored categories, with significant backlogs in F1, F3, and F4, particularly for high-demand countries like India and Mexico. Employment-based visas, especially EB-2 and EB-3, have experienced severe retrogressions, signaling likely further delays as demand continues to exceed supply. However, more stable categories, such as EB-5 investor visas, remain current, offering some opportunities for prospective investors.

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